Bain's $60M Luxury Exodus: The Value-Curation Play Nobody's Building

Bain's $60M Luxury Exodus: The Value-Curation Play Nobody's Building

Bain reports 60 million luxury customers lost since 2022 while high-income diners flood Applebee's. A trust-first curation gap is wide open.

Households pulling in $250k a year are flexing about their Costco cashmere finds in the wild.

Not "I bought the new $2,000 bag."

"I found cashmere for $70 at Costco and it looks like $400."

That's the new status game. And it's flipping a massive market inside out.


The Signal

Something happened in Q3 2025. Applebee's—yes, that Applebee's—reported that more higher-income guests are joining than lower-income guests leaving. According to Dine Brands CEO John Peyton on their November 2025 earnings call, high-income diners drove the chain's traffic growth, not budget diners looking for a cheap meal.

At the same time, Bain & Company released a bombshell report: the global luxury customer base has shrunk from 400 million people in 2022 to around 340 million in 2025. That's 60 million customers gone. Worse, the consultancy projects another 20-30 million will vanish. Even the ultra-wealthy—the top customers luxury brands have been courting—feel "betrayed" by years of aggressive price hikes that delivered diminishing creativity and quality.

The money didn't disappear. The attitude did.

Bain partner Federica Levato put it bluntly: "You cannot target only the top customers. Because they are also starting to really be upset and to feel betrayed in this industry." The elevation strategy that dominated luxury for a decade—relentless price hikes—has backfired spectacularly. It created what Levato calls "a complete void in the market" for companies offering quality at more affordable prices.

Meanwhile, Savers Value Village—the largest for-profit thrift operator in the U.S. and Canada—reports over 20% growth in affluent shoppers. Nearly 50% of teens now purchase from thrift stores, according to the Spring 2025 Teen Survey. The company has grown its loyalty program to over 6 million members.

On TikTok, the #deinfluencing hashtag exploded to 1.3 billion views by January 2024—and has kept climbing. "Underconsumption core" videos, where creators show off modest wardrobes and well-used products, get nearly three times the engagement of traditional #TikTokMadeMeBuyIt content.

The flex is no longer "I paid full freight." It's: "I look rich. I paid half. I'm not a sucker."

At first glance, it's a fleeting cultural moment—blink and you'll miss it. But if you're a heister, you check the numbers and see a category waiting to be built.


The Opportunity: Build the Stealth-Wealth Deal Engine

Call it Dupe Digest: a trust-first buying engine for high-income penny-pinchers who hate overpaying more than they love luxury logos.

Not a coupon site. Not a TikTok dupe account. A "Wirecutter for stealth wealth."

The core offering:

  • You don't chase the lowest price on junk.
  • You chase high-quality, long-life products that happen to be mispriced, overstocked, or quietly flushed through Costco, outlets, and thrift channels.
  • You make it socially shareable to brag about value instead of spend.

The target user:

Vault-only access.

Join founders who spot opportunities ahead of the crowd. Actionable insights. Zero fluff.

“Intelligent, bold, minus the pretense.”

“Like discovering the cheat codes of the startup world.”

“SH is off-Broadway for founders — weird, sharp, and ahead of the curve.”

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